Relevant views on the economy and its impact on shoppers, retail and trade strategy.

  • March retail sales: Tax cuts imperceptible in top-line growth
    Retail sales growth in March held to only a moderate pace despite a potential lift from tax cuts and more tax refund checks hitting shoppers’ ...
  • Global macro outlook
    Most major global markets are poised for stronger growth in 2018. Find out in this summary slide deck which markets will improve and which will ...
  • Shoppers are initially unsure or unconvinced of tax reform’s benefits
    Shoppers’ initial uncertainty about tax reform suggests there will be a only a modest lift to total retail in the short term. But our survey indicates ...
  • Improved retail growth in 2018
    Expect stronger growth, but persisting challenges for retail in 2018. Here’s a quick look at the macro trends shaping our recently released channel ...
  • Canadian Macroeconomic and Retail Sales Overview
    Canada has the fastest growing, but perhaps the most uncertain, growth trajectory among major developed markets. Find out in this report why and ...
  • U.S. eCommerce Outlook: Category Group Forecasts
    This slide deck summarizes Kantar Retail’s U.S. online channel forecast and in-store versus online category spending forecasts to 2022.
    

The macro economy is polarizing households at both ends of the income spectrum. Adjusting to this new world of Haves and Have Nots is key to creating value - and long-term success - in today's retail marketplace.

Key Indicators

 
ARTICLE

April retail sales: Stronger spending plans upended by weather and store closures

21 May 2018

  By: Doug Hermanson

Retail sales growth in April may have disappointed some, but spending plans portend stronger growth in the coming months. This article summarizes retail channel performance in April, and the expected positives and negatives within the retail economy in the short term.

 
ARTICLE

March retail sales: Tax cuts imperceptible in top-line growth

19 Apr 2018

  By: Doug Hermanson

Retail sales growth in March held to only a moderate pace despite a potential lift from tax cuts and more tax refund checks hitting shoppers’ bank accounts in March. Find in this article the macro, retail, and policy factors which shaped shopper and retail performance in March.

 
ARTICLE

February retail sales: Consumables-focused channels increasingly lag online and specialty

20 Mar 2018

  By: Doug Hermanson

The supermarket, mass/value, and drugstore channels lagged further behind the retail average in February due to a mix of transient and lingering factors that heightened concerns among shoppers. Find in this article the macro, retail, and policy factors which shaped shopper and retail performance.

 
ARTICLE

January retail sales: Shoppers revert to a moderate pace of growth

27 Feb 2018

  By: Doug Hermanson

With the holidays behind them, shoppers took a more measured approach to their spending to start the year. Find out in this article which channels were affected and if this trend will continue in the coming months.

 
ARTICLE

December retail sales: Holiday shoppers rebound from last year

25 Jan 2018

  By: Doug Hermanson

Shoppers finished the holiday period on a strong note. Find out in this article the where and why behind the December results, and if these trends will be sustained into January.

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Topical Pulse

 
Webinar

US Home Improvement Webinar – Finding New Growth in Home Improvement: The Shift to Providing Complete Home Solutions

8 Mar 2018, 01:00 PM EST

In the wake of a strong macro environment and increased savings from the recent U.S. tax bill, home improvement retailers are looking ahead to what’s next for the channel, rather than idling in their recent successes. As retailers funnel capital expenditures into new initiatives, the shift to becoming complete home solution providers becomes more pronounced. Growth into décor-related categories, home design services, and digital tools are becoming more prominent offers from ...

 
Followers: 622

Despite tax policy experts forecasting a lift to most households’ disposable income from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, shoppers are much less certain. This divergence between perception and potential reality suggests retailers should curb near-term expectations even as some in the policy ...

 
Followers: 383

Some low-income shoppers will see their tax refunds delayed until late February this year, likely disrupting sales at discounters and value-focused consumables retailers. The delay isn’t as impactful as last year, but should be noted by suppliers and retailers which focus on this shopper. ...

 
Followers: 383

Even as most brick-and-mortar channels improved this past holiday, eCommerce took even bigger steps toward capturing holiday shoppers’ dollars. The government’s recently released quarterly sales measure indicates eCommerce sales in the holiday fourth quarter grew at their strongest ...

 
Summary Slides

U.S. Retail Outlook for 2018

16 Jan 2018

By: Kantar Consulting Research Team, Diana Sheehan.  54 Slides

What does the year hold for U.S. retail? Our 2018 predictions provide insights on macro, shopper, and channel trends and key retailers.

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Future Outlook

 
Webinar

Emerging Macro Retail Trends Webinar - Competing for Share of Wallet: Forecasts and Implications

2 May 2018, 11:00 AM EDT

Competition for share of wallet is heating up. Digital has brought all categories within the reach of shoppers at just about any point in time, making specialty goods and services more accessible. Meanwhile, costs are rising in some essential services and goods, siphoning away discretionary income. Consumer brands will increasingly struggle to stand on their own as shoppers adjust their spending accordingly. Suppliers and retailers will need to develop new partnerships, assets, and skills ...

 
Summary Slides

Global macro outlook

5 Apr 2018

By: Doug Hermanson.  16 Slides

Most major global markets are poised for stronger growth in 2018. Find out in this summary slide deck which markets will improve and which will fall further behind.

 
Webinar

Emerging Macro Retail Trends Webinar: 2018 U.S. Outlook - Planning for the Year Ahead 

1 Feb 2018, 11:00 AM EST

Retailers and manufacturers should be optimistic about 2018 given the lift tax cuts will provide to spending. But shifting digital, demographic, and economic trends mean it will be a retail environment in which change will be rewarded, while the status quo will be scrutinized. Tune in to this webinar to understand what strategies you need to change to win shoppers in 2018. As part of this discussion, expect to learn: How changes to tax policy will affect retail in 2018. The retailers, ...

 
Summary Slides

U.S. Macro Outlook: Proposed Tax Cuts Needed to Firm Up Demand in 2018 (Preliminary Report)

22 Dec 2017

By: Doug Hermanson.  30 Slides

This slide deck features a preliminary expectations for the macro environment in 2018. Also included is an initial analysis of the December tax proposal and its retail implications.

 
Summary Slides

Canadian Macroeconomic and Retail Sales Overview

22 Dec 2017

By: Doug Hermanson, Robin Sherk, Rohini Birla.  19 Slides

Canada has the fastest growing, but perhaps the most uncertain, growth trajectory among major developed markets. Find out in this report why and how to hedge your strategies to ensure growth.

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Market Forecasts

 
Summary Slides

Home improvement forecasts and outlook

21 Mar 2018

By: Doug Hermanson.  11 Slides

In 2018, the core home improvement channel is expected to outpace the all-retail average for the seventh-straight year. Find out in this publication what these trends mean for suppliers and retailers.

 
Followers: 383
BLOG POST

Improved retail growth in 2018

12 Feb 2018  By: Doug Hermanson

With new tax legislation, more of shoppers’ money will be going to retailers and less to the government in 2018, catalyzing the strongest retail sales growth since 2014. Retailers should still plan for old and new challenges in the coming quarters, which will offset some of the benefits ...

 
Summary Slides

2017 Winter Holiday Forecasts

15 Sep 2017

By: Doug Hermanson.  13 Slides

Select U.S. forecasts for the winter holiday quarter are featured in this summary slide deck. Data for all underlying channel forecasts—nominal, real, and price series—are available via a link on the webpage.

 
Summary Slides

U.S. Channel Forecasts: Q3 Outlook

7 Aug 2017

By: Doug Hermanson.  10 Slides

Forecasts for the back-to-school quarter by channel are featured in this summary slide deck. Data for all underlying channel forecasts—nominal, real, and price series—are available via a link on the webpage.

 
Summary Slides

U.S. eCommerce Outlook: Category Group Forecasts

19 Jun 2017

By: Doug Hermanson, Robin Sherk.  12 Slides

This slide deck summarizes Kantar Retail’s U.S. online channel forecast and in-store versus online category spending forecasts to 2022.

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